Short summary: That was an awesome week for our subscribers. The market turned into a short-term market, ie. the forecasts made on a 4-hour basis were more correct than the 1-day forecasts. We believe that this is related to the low volumes and the never-seen-before market behavior.
The forecasts published on early Monday morning for the full week saw a dip of #QQQ / $QQQ to 363 for the first 2 days followed by a strong bullish trend towards 375+ USD for the next 13 trading days. There was a strong resistance line at 368 USD that needed to be crossed first.
As you can see in the following chart the lowest lows on 08-04 followed the forecasted while the highs and closing prices followed the bullish yellow prediction. In addition to this the asset followed the calculated trend line (coming from 361 and ending at 370).
Looking at the all-time-high analysis we can see that the current ATH is a series that is similar to over 20 other similar ATH-series that occured in history. And in only 1 of these series there was major crash with -23%. In all other situations the ATH was followed my more ATHs in the near future.
The current forecast sees a very bullish future for NASDAQ & QQQ. BUT: As you can see the forecast start at approx. 370 USD is very close to the upper trend / resistance line which comes from 368 and ends at 377. This indicates that a re-test of the support at 368 or the trend line at 361 is likely. In this short-term oriented market we recommend to take a look at the 1hour and 4hour forecats next week.
The DOW-DIA behavior indicates a market that is short-term oriented. Have a look at the 1-day time step forecast we published on early Monday morning. It showed a more bullish (yellow) than bearish (red) outlook
As you can see, the asset was fighting to reach the yellow zones - always dancing along the diagonal trend line.
Why do see a short-term market? We call this a short-term market because in these days the 4-hour timesteps are more correct than the 1-day time steps. Here's a good example: Here's DIA on 08-05 | 07:59:
And here's DIA on 08-06 | 08:00:
You can see that all short-term forecasts are very exact. Especially DIA, SPY & NASDAQ were following a secret script that sold the over-night futures and bought the assets after 8am CET.
The outlook for next week is "moderate". Bullish but within the trend channel.
S&P - SPY
In contrast to QQQ & DIA forecasted a bearish retest of the 2 upper support lines for the longer 1-day forecasts.
But again, the short-term forecasts were more exact than the longer term: If you followed the 4 hour time steps then all projections this week were 80% correct. Especially the forecasts made at 8am in the morning:
That drove us to publish some tweets:
So, what's next? The ATH Analysis tells us that the current situation (orange bubble in the right corner at the bottom) matches 13 similar scenarios in the last 3700 trading days. And in only 2 situations we saw a major dip > 5%.
It is quite interesting to see that the current forecast made for the next 2 weeks stills sees that retest of the 2 support lines.
TESLA / TSLA
Two weeks back we forecasted TSLA to be within the 620 (minimum) and 682 (maximum) range while there is that strong support line at 648 USD and the tendency is bearish. On the 29th of July TSLA managed to cross the upper resistance line.
Our TSLA forecasts were still super bearish on Monday: There was that negative trend line coming from 682 and going to 660 USD. All trend & support lines were below the current price level so a re-test of these levels was more likely. And in fact the last price of TSLA was 699. There wasn't enough power for further gains.
And again, in this current market the 4-hour time steps were more accurate than the 1-day forecasts:
TSLA's current outlook for the next 2 weeks is completely bullish. Let's see if there is enough buying power next week. The next support is at 680 USD.
BITCOIN / BTC
On Sunday we forecasted a dip to 39k USD with a bullish support line coming from 35k and ending at 40k USD. As you can see, BTC pretty much followed this forecasted path:
After re-testing the bullish support line BTC continued on Thursday to follow the forecasted path:
The current forecasts has more red than yellow zones and the price of BTC moved from being above all trend lines to being within both trendlines. The support line became a resistance line now and we can expect BTC to retest the 40k level - gain again, re-test.
But BTC is a beast. Everything is possible.