The #Bitcoin bear market is... over?

In the past months our own Y8-RCI indicator recorded the longest bear market signal duration since April 2015. The Y8-RCI analyses the past in order to predict the most likely future.

On June 2nd the Y8-RCI signalled a longer term bullish future of #Bitcoin when the price jumped towards 31603.8:

How did we invest so far?

While the Y8-RCI is calculated on an end-of-day basis, the newest release Y8-RCI-30 is calculated on 30-minute timeframes. It's intend is to predict over- and underpriced situations of Bitcoin.

The "slow" Y8-RCI only delivers 10-12 of these signals a year. And with Bitcoin's high volatility it is likely that the Bitcoin price already plunged 7% within the last 24 hours before the Y8-RCI reacts.

The reason for inventing the Y8-RCI-30 was our core believe that our unique #AI algorithms are able to identify shorter term behaviors of Bitcoin. You may call Y8-RCI-30 an algorithm for High Frequency Trading of Bitcoin.

The Y8 team uses this algorithm to trade Bitcoin with its own Kraken account. Here's the result of the first 5 months (excluding fees):

  • grey = BTC price

  • red circle = short trade started

  • blue circle = long trade started

  • empty circle = trade exited

  • green = backtest portfolio value

If we zoom-in to March 2022 you can see that a the majority of all long & short positions were correct. It gained approx. 10% excl. fees:

How does Y8-RCI-30 work?

The #AI based algorithms of Y8 forecast the most like price movements of Bitcoin within the next 13 timesteps. Such as the forecast that was created by Y8 at t_0 = "2022-05-25 12:33:00":

  • BTC price is already fighting with the 30k level

  • Y8 predicts a negative (= red) price range of 29600 --> 30000+ until 15:33 o'clock and after crossing 30k it's likely dipping back below 29800

The key question now is: when is the best entry and exit point?

Y8-RCI-30 tries to answer this question by calculating the best entry and exit points. In this very situation it forecasted that BTC will not jump above the 30k level. If it jumps above, it's more likely falling back below this level.

So, the chance to short BTC once it's above 30k is - according to Y8's AI based statistics - quite good. But how far will BTC fall? 29800? That would be just 200 USD difference. That's why Y8-RCI-30 takes a look a the bigger picture: the 4-hour based forecasts.

As you can see in the next image the 4-hour based forecast created at t_0 = "2022-05-24 11:59:00" forecasts a bearish (= red) price range of 28400 USD --> 29500 USD. The higher the price of BTC rises above these levels the higher the historical chance that the price will fall back again. With this additional input the short signal around 30k becomes even more attractive.

Here are the trades of May 2022:

How can you get access to Y8-RCI-30?

Y8 is a pure cloud & API based solution. We provide a Python API to connect to our services. If you like to get an R&D access to our API please fill out our contact form at the main page.