What A Week! A New Mega-Rally? (Part 2)

Updated: Aug 18

Click here for Part 1.

  1. A Week In Review (Part 1)

  2. The 3 Big ETFs: DIA, SPY & QQQ

  3. The 3 Major Stocks: TSLA, FB & AMZN

  4. The 3 Major Cryptos: BTC, ETH & XRP

  5. What's Next (Part 2)

  6. Will There Be a Mega-Rally Next Week for Stocks?

  7. Will Cryptos Skyrocket Next Week?

Will There Be a Mega-Rally Next Week for Stocks?

From and end-of-week perspective the 3 big ETFs QQQ, SPY & DIA all look bullish. DIA & SPY closed above their trend lines and show (execept for DIA on 08-20) a complete yellow (= bullish) scenario. QQQ still fights with its resistance level at 368 but looks positive, too:

From an ATH-perspective QQQ / Nasdaq is ready for a bigger correction. The current (orange) situation is similar to more than 30 other ATH-situations. And in each situation a correction occured between 1,6% and 23,1%.

SPY in contrast to QQQ isn't ready for a correction yet. The current ATH bubble is similar to 4 other situations in the past. When these other bubbles bursted a correction between 2% and 10% happend. But statistically the current (orange) bubble has at least one full week left to grow.

The same situation can be found in the DIA / DOWJONES numbers. The current orange bubble is similar to 1 other bubble. When this bubble bursted the DOW dipped 3.8%. But this bubble would need at minimum a week to burst, too.

In summary a mega rally seems to be unlikely for the big 3 indices. Higher highs are possible for DIA & SPY. If QQQ is able to climb above 368 than it's sun is shining again. It seems to be more likely that we see a last dance before we enter the statistically worst month of the year: September.

Have a close look at the forecasts published tomorrow AM. If we see more red zones than yellow then risk for dips is bigger than today.

Will Cryptos Skyrocket Next Week?

Today you can read news that BTC will hit 50k next week. Marc Cuban says Dodge Coin is the best choice for electronic money. From a sentiment point of view there's a lot of positive news around cryptocurrencies.

XRP is the only crypto currency that moves above the current trend lines. All others are captured within an open triangle. But the accuracy of XRP forecasts is lower than the accuracy of all other crypto assets.

Since BTC and ETH lead the market it looks like these two assets need to have a break. When they had their break, it's time to review the situation again. But from a number perspective a mega rally of cryptos less likely.