Crash Advise

You may have seen the news about China. China’s nightmare Evergrande scenario is an uncontrolled crash. This is a black swan event for all markets.


Our YUCE-8 models cannot predict a black swan event. They can predict the most likely future of assets before and after such an event. The majority of all models was trained with a scenario where the market moves up in 95% of all cases (e. g. the DOW gained more than he lost for the last 20 years). Black Swan events are so unique and happen so rarely that statistical models don't work in these 2-3 weeks until everyone sold this super-leveraged portfolio.


Therefore be cautious these days! The short-term forecasts (1-hour, 4-hours) can be more accurate than the long-term forecasts (1-day).